April 15
2007
Amazing if true
» Posted on April 15, 2007 08:36 PM » Category: General

I make no judgement; I merely report:

A friend of mine, who is one of the shrewdest observers of French politics, tells me that his hunch is that the polls are completely wrong, and have not taken proper account of how almost half the votes will be cast next Sunday. His prediction is that the poll will be topped by Bayrou, with Le Pen as runner up.


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Your friend has lost his shrewd touch; this is a ridiculous notion. First-round winners will be Royal/Sarkozy because the socialists are doing a good albeit dishonest job of convincing their base that a vote for anyone other than their candidate is effectively a vote for Le Pen. Sarkozy has done what Thatcher did to the NF and Bayrou is losing too many centre-right voters to maintain his imaginery coalition. The remaining question is whether Sarkozy is going to continue to be painted by the centre as well as the left as a crypto-fascist during the second-round campaign.

Stated by: Mister Chip on April 16, 2007 6:58 PM

To your friend (and to the other overclever persons who have expressed similar views, including Christopher Hitchens) from me: what now, o sage?

Stated by: Paolo on April 22, 2007 8:11 PM
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