December 09
2006
You think I oppose just for effect? I disagree (The Times)
» Posted on December 9, 2006 02:16 AM » Category:

This piece of mine is in today's Times:

I met one of you this week. A reader. I always knew you were out there. Indeed, I know of at least one person who buys The Times specifically to read my words (although the fact that her surname is Pollard and she is my mother diminishes the warm glow).

Some of you write to me, usually to call me names revolving around my appearance or my religion and sometimes demonstrating amazing linguistic dexterity by managing both in the same phrase.

But actually meeting one of you . . . well, I am still recovering. He had a pleasant demeanour, a nice smile and was softly spoken. And I think his intention was to compliment me. He walked up to me at a meeting I was chairing and said how much he enjoyed my columns. Thank you, I replied, touched that a stranger should say so. And then came the word that threw me. The word that has left me wondering if everything I’ve ever written has been not just a waste of my time but, more importantly, of yours.

“Yes,” he said. “you’re a real contrarian.” Reader, it was a knife in the back. A fist in the solar plexus. A pickaxe to the brain. Do you think I just go against the grain for the sake of going against the grain?

If I write that, to take this week’s news, far from Syria and Iran providing the solution to Iraq and the Middle East, the region’s two terrorist states are, rather, the problem, does it really seem that I am just being different for the sake of it?

There is nothing more boring — or, to be blunt, stupid — than taking a contrary view to the mainstream regardless of the facts. The received wisdom can often be disastrously wrong, as it was from the late 1980s when membership of the ERM was regarded by almost the entire political and media class as essential. Those of us who argued against it were dismissed as boggle-eyed lunatics. Now we know who were the real nutters.

Similarly, by the 1970s opponents of comprehensive schools were dismissed as backward-looking fools by a consensus that stretched from Tony Crosland to Margaret Thatcher (who, as Education Secretary, presided over the closure of more grammar schools than any other minister in history). Oh, what we would give now for schools that produced leavers who could read, write and go out at night without throwing up in the streets.

But there is a big difference between opposing the received wisdom because one thinks it is wrong and being a contrarian who opposes it just to oppose. One is honourable and thoughtful; the other merely the mirror image of the slavish followers of intellectual fashion.

I have encountered this difference in another guise this week, having just become president of the Centre for the New Europe, a free-market think-tank in Brussels. We work in a town where regulation is the default policy option and “solidarity” (a euphemism for state intervention against personal freedom) is the prized goal. But our motivation is not to be awkward or contrarian. It’s to fight for what we believe is best, such as tearing down trade barriers rather than, as the EU is prone to do, hoisting up drawbridges against imports. That may be contrary to the mainstream but it’s not contrarian.

Sometimes, though, you can’t win. My think-tank has a number of climate-change sceptics. On that, I’m with the received wisdom. I think it’s real, is frightening and is largely man-made. So I’m changing our formal stance and making clear that as an organisation we think it’s real. But that’s not the same as believing that Kyoto offers all the answers. There are other ideas, too, that can be pro-business and pro-growth.

That’s not good enough, though. Because I don’t sign up to the full slate of prescriptions advocated by the green lobby, I’m dismissed an opponent of green measures. A contrarian, in other words, like the climate-change deniers.

Well, I’m not. I believe what I write, whether one or one million readers agree with me. When I was a member of the Labour Party, I started arguing that education vouchers ought to be the passion of the Left, because handing over the power of the purse string to those who can’t afford to write out a cheque for school fees seemed to me a properly progressive idea. That almost no one agreed was not a reason for pushing the idea — it was a reason for despairing at the mindset of the Left.

So next time you read something I write, are horrified by it and think it’s only pour épater le bourgeois, I’m afraid it’s not. Weird as it might seem, I do actually think it’s true.


MessageSpace
Comments

So have you ever been wrong about anything?

Stated by: thesquid on December 9, 2006 11:26 AM

"So have you ever been wrong about anything?"

Off the top of my head, three things: being far too polite to and about Neil Clark, restarting the comments section on this blog, sticking up for Ehud Olmert.

Stated by: Joshua on December 9, 2006 12:57 PM

I sympathize. I was once asked by a woman at a party if I intended to see the new Jodie Foster movie. I told her no, that I thought Jodie Foster's talent was grossly overrated. The woman replied that she never needed to ask to me about film again, because obviously I say things only to go against the consensus.

In politics, though, don't you think anyone who is not a partisan automatically will appear to be a contrarian, since the parties -- certainly in a two-party system like here in America -- are always overstating their positions and misrepresenting the truth, knowing that they will never get everything they want but hoping they can get some of what they want through exaggeration? The best example I can think of, I'm afraid, is the environmentalist argument about global warming. To insist that much of the "consensus" on global warming is wrong -- it will cause problems, but not massive flooding of the coastlines -- makes one an automatic contrarian. But it also places one on factually sound footing.

Stated by: Frank Lee on December 9, 2006 7:22 PM

Stephen, many blogs blogroll you as Combatant and that you are, for what you believe. Perhaps this chap was not a long time reader. One can never tell on a chance meeting. Anyway, what's it matter what you're called - I get "insignificant strawman" and whether true or not, who cares?

Stated by: James on December 10, 2006 3:03 PM

Stephen

While most of what you say makes an awful lot of sense, your view on climate change is ... let us say uninformed, although I don't mean any perjoritive sense. I simply mean that you have not the specialist knowledge to realise when news reporting of a scientific case does not bear scrutiny.

The evidence for human influence as a major factor in climate change is poor. I have a degree in Geology from a very reputable university, and am often horrified by the misstatement of the case in order to champion the idea of human responsibility. What amounts to lies are being told about historical and prehistorical climate, and about the geological evidence for the relationships between climate and other environmental factors.

On the other side there is one plain fact that, while not proving human influence is a myth, is a very strong argument for this case. This fact must be addressed by anyone trying to make a case for significant anthropogenic climate change.

95% of the greenhouse effect on Earth is caused by water vapour.

To anyone with even the most rudimentary grounding in an environmental scientific discipline this creates a sudden problem. Vapour content of the atmosphere varies greatly throught he atmosphere and over time on every scale from diurnal through annual to many years. This effect far outweighs any change in carbon dioxide levels by several orders of magnitude.

As a collumnist, professional in debate I could say, something should jump out at you. You can use your specialisation to help you judge the "concensus".

The terms of the debate have been framed to try and cut out any legitimacy on the side of the skeptics, instead of addressing their arguments. You surely recognise this as the tactic of those who haveno confidence in the argument behind their views, who cannot argue the case successfully: they say that they must be right, and any other view is morally unacceptible. The most sickening was the anti-scientific statment by the head of the Royal Society, asserting that the man-made global warming theory is an absolute fact, and that no-one should ever challenge it. That is something no scientist should ever have said, and should have caused his immediate sacking.

Stated by: Richard on December 13, 2006 3:10 PM
Post a comment

    


    •