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Developed by:
| October | 25 |
| 2006 |
The newspapers and TV, as well as the political classes here and in the US (and especially in Brussels, where I write this and where it is reported with glee) are full of stories about the forthcoming Republican meltdown. Certainly, the evidence seems to point that way and sometimes - as in Britain in 1997 - the polls and pundits can be bang on in reporting a wave of antipathy to a governing party.
But I think a word of caution is in order. Last week, I spoke to two of the most politically savvy analysts in DC, and both - one a hard core Republican activist, the other a mainstream Democrat columnist - told me the same thing: the polls don't reveal the real story, which is that the races which matter are too close to call, that the Republicans are so much shrewder in their tactics and spending than the Democrats, that the Democratic 'one issue campaign' (Iraq) is irrelevant to most Americans, and that the received wisdom is wrong.
Both gave me the same prediction: that the Republicans would hold both the House and the Senate, and that the Democrats might take as few as 10 seats in the House.
That said, they both said the Foley affair had been a huge problem for Republicans. It wasn't so much that it was reducing support; rather, it came at a time when the Republicans were on a roll and regaining previously lost support, and the scandal put the brakes on that.
It may be that both of them are dead wrong, and the Democrats do indeed run away with the elections. But I think it sensible to remember these observations.
UPDATE: And the Telegraph has a similar report here.
MessageSpace
Matt Drudge carried this headline two days ago:
MAGAZINE SHOCK: REPUBLICANS WILL HOLD CONGRESS
The magazine referred to is Barron's and here's the article dated Monday, October 23:
Survivor!
The GOP Victory
"JUBILANT DEMOCRATS SHOULD RECONSIDER their order for confetti and noisemakers. The Democrats, as widely reported, are expecting GOP-weary voters to flock to the polls in two weeks and hand them control of the House for the first time in 12 years -- and perhaps the Senate, as well. Even some Republicans privately confess that they are anticipating the election-day equivalent of Little Big Horn. Pardon our hubris, but we just don't see it."
Read the rest:
http://tinyurl.com/ycbc9j
Certainly an interesting take and flies in the face of the other thinking on it.
I predicted this a month ago. The real danger is that if Bush's Big Government profligacy is not punished, then he and the GOP will think they can carry on as before. But it will make the Kossacks very sad, which will bring a wintery smile to my features.
Well it flies in the face of the American media -MSM variety, but then they're liberals overall and doing their damnedest to depress Republican spirits in advance so that they won't come out to vote.
OTOH, lots of libertarian or RW blogs and conservatives think that it is just barely possible the republicans will pull it out - or that will go one on one. Either way, the margins will be terribly narrow.
If you haven't heard that on CNN lately, it's because their news slots are like big campaign ads. It's all devoted to Foley - which everyone else has basically dropped- or how Iraq is already a lost cause and we should just surrender it already, etc.
In any case, if neither the House nor the Senate change hands, prepare to hear how the Republicans stole the election - again. So essentially the dems have it covered either way.
Fox is less depressing. Because at least they host a range of opinion.