There's been a lot of commentary today about just how lucky Blair is, having been let off the referndum hook by the French.

But that's looking at it the wrong way round. Blair is without a doubt the most politically brilliant PM, whose strategic vision is so deft that most obervers don't even see what he's up to. Don't forget that Chirac had initially rejected the idea of a referendum (as had Blair). Blair's 'luck' is, rather, brilliant strategy. Why did Chirac change his mind? Precisely because Blair pldged a referendum. Iif Blair, who faced a public which was clearly anti, could be so bold, how could Chirac, who faced only the 'engine room' of the EU, not do the same?

As a sportsman once put it (I forget who): I find that the more I practice, the luckier I get.

UPDATE: It was Gary Player who said that.