If the Conservatives really think that this election marks their rebirth then they are heading straight for defeat in 2009. They have been unable to break out of their core share of the vote, where they have been stuck since 1992. They have won in some seats, yes, but they have made little worthwhile progress. The reliably dense Michael Ancram argued on the radio this morning that it was a good result because, although their vote has remained solid, Labour's had fallen.

For 'remained solid', of course, read 'stuck where it has been for a decade' - not remotely enough even to threaten Labour. If it had not been for Iraq, and the desertion from Labour, Labour would have lost hardly any seats.

The truth of the matter is that the Tories have made almost no progress since Black Wednesday and the Major collapse.

Already, some Tories are making the case that it will take only one more election to kick Labour out. Hello? Have a look at the figures, my friends. You are living are in la-la land.

We have, of course, been here before. When John Smith took over as Labour leader in 1992, he too believed it would take only ‘one more heave’. His tactics were based on saying nothing and doing nothing, keeping his head down and waiting for victory to fall into his lap. If the Tories want now to replicate that strategy, no one will be happier than Gordon Brown, who will no doubt be PM in 2009.

The lesson the Tories need to start learning from Labour is not that they should become a party of the mushy centre. That is completely to misunderstand what Blair was about in opposition.

Blair realised that no party can win with only the support of its core vote. What he did was to rethink what Labour's core values actually meant in the modern world. The Tories need to be guided by New Labour's slogan in opposition: traditional values in a modern context.

In the Conservatives' case, that means adapting the values people with which voters outside the Tory tribe identify them and for which they respect them: lower taxes, a smaller state and greater individual freedom.

Low taxes in a modern context means the flat tax, an idea whose time has come which is proving its merits in eastern Europe and is now on the agenda in the US. It has intellectual merit, is economically a win-win and is politically sellable, as an idea naturally associated with the Tories. It also has the advantage of being on the side of history.

With Brown as PM, the choice in 2009 should, if the Tories have any sense (which is doubtful, given their behaviour since 1992) be clear between Labour's ever rising tax and spend, to little worthwhile effect, or adopting the pro-growth flat tax and a reduction in government comtrol in areas such as health and education.

With a choice like that, I would vote Conservative.