May 06
2005
Not too bad
» Posted on May 6, 2005 08:29 AM » Category: UK politics

I will. of course, be posting properly about the election, but as I head off to get some sleep, the share of the vote - Labour 36.3%, Conservative 33.2% and LibDem 22.6% - is not far off my prediction of Wednesday: Labour 37%, Conservative 33% and LibDems 24%.

I overestimated the LibDem vote and erestimated the uniqueness of individual constituency results. Where I calculated seats won on a uniform swing, giving Labour 373 seats, the Conservatives 185 and the LibDems 58, the real result (as of this morning) was Labour 353 seats, the Conservatives 195 and the LibDems 59.

Not a bad stab at a prediction, I think.


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