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| July | 09 |
| 2004 |
Here's a fascinating piece by Peter Oborne in The Spectator on Oliver Letwin and Michael Howard. It's a rare example of an article on British politics which makes you pause to reconsider your impressions (well, it made me do so, anyway).
My view of Letwin's performance since he became Shadow Chancellor has been that it showed what a good Shadow Home Secretary he'd been. It seemed to me that he was, to be blunt, out of his depth, walking into traps laid by Gordon Brown and lacking the same deftness of touch which he'd demonstrated as Blunkett's shadow, where he carved out a distinctive position.
Hmmm. Oborne suggests that
Instead of attending to the grim rituals which pass for modern political activity, Letwin has taken a step back from the contemporary political scene. Though shadow chancellor for barely six months, he has already created a coherent, well-researched and fundamentally Tory critique of Gordon Brown’s management of national finances.Because of the way that New Labour is constructed, above all Tony Blair’s curious decision to allow domestic policy to be controlled from the Treasury, Letwin has been obliged to undertake a wider analysis of New Labour in government than perhaps he originally envisaged. The results of Letwin’s work have started to emerge over the past few weeks, and they can only be described as dazzling. It is hard to overstate the importance of what he has done: he has at last provided the tools for the long-awaited conservative intellectual fightback.
...At the heart of Letwin’s argument is the proposition that Gordon Brown’s Big Government has created an historic opportunity for the Conservatives. Ten years ago New Labour in opposition put forward the strikingly plausible proposition that it was at once the party of social justice and economic efficiency. Today Oliver Letwin is steadily constructing a Tory party that can realistically claim to have reconciled the two apparently contradictory objectives of a smaller state, as well as improved public services. Hence the proposals, unveiled by shadow spokesmen Andrew Lansley and Tim Collins over the past two weeks, to give massive new freedoms to hospitals and schools, liberating them from the stranglehold of the bureaucrats.
This is interesting. On reflection, I wonder if I've misjudged what he's been doing. Oborne argues that
Michael Howard’s Conservative party has made astonishing progress in a very short space of time. It has already constructed a coherent and serious Tory vision of how a modern economy should be run, while showing that New Labour over the last seven years has adopted the wrong model for health and education, with wretched consequences for pupils and patients. There is no evidence at all that this vision has communicated itself to the electorate at large — last week’s Populus poll in the Times, showing the Conservative party languishing at 29 per cent, four points behind the government, was especially discouraging. But Howard has achieved something that is almost as important, and much more interesting and attractive. For the first time in 20 years the Conservative party is the dominant source of ideas on the national stage.
I think the first sentence is OTT. But what's clearly true is that, as he puts it, the only interesting ideas now emerging are emanating from the right. The left wing (and New Labour) think tanks, for instance, are now lifeless, dull and lacking in ideas. All the fizz - such as it is - comes from the market-based think tanks. Just to cite the word of the hour, look at how choice - a market-based, Conservative idea if ever there has been one - has been adopted by the government.
Therein lies some of the difficulty in looking at this objectively. New Labour's great achievement was to embrace the market. But, as has often been remarked, its fundamental (domestic) flaw has been its inability to follow through on its analysis. To put it another way: New Labour talks the talk but it doesn't walk the walk.
Oborne's most important point is this:
Today Oliver Letwin is steadily constructing a Tory party that can realistically claim to have reconciled the two apparently contradictory objectives of a smaller state, as well as improved public services.
Not yet, is what I'd say. The arguments are out there, the ideas ready to be taken up. The policies are getting there. But both the NHS and schools policies are flawed. I'll post in detail on this soon, but in in short:
The NHS policy amounts to saying the Tories will take - under threat of imprisonment - even more money from us (they say they'll increase spending on the NHS) which the government dictates must be spent on health, and they will then let us have a partial say on where that money is spent. That's not choice - and it's certainly not a smaller state in any worthwhile sense.
As for schools: well, yes, fine. But even though the Tories have bought into the analysis which shows that vouchers are the way to break the logjam and give real power (the power of the purse string) to the poor, they haven't followed through. Again, their existing policy amounts to shuffling the existing pot around with a bit more input from parents. That's good - and it's an improvement on what Charles Clarke announced yesterday (although not much of one) - but real choice it ain't. For that to be the case, the voucher should be available to be spent wherever. And it has to be free to be topped up. That's how you get more money into the system as a result of parental decisions rather than dictating it through tax.
But, as I say, Oborne's piece makes me wonder if I am being too critical of Howard. It's taken 7 years, but maybe the Tories really are beginning the work of putting themselves in a position to win office again. Beginning, mark you.
MessageSpace
The real problem they have is that Labour (bizarrely) still have more credibility on skoolznhospitals, so for the Tories to propose a full market-based solution is political suicide. Just look at the screeching from little Dougie Alexander last time they announced their spending policies. They almost have to be elected on a false manifesto, then implement much more sweeping reform than they promised. Or win the ideas war, but with a relatively hostile media, that isn't going to happen.
Either way, it is pretty sure that Labour can't deliver on choice anyway. Once the backbenchers get their hands on it, it will be watered down into yet more money for the NHS and schools, with more bureaucracy to get hold of it, and very little choice indeed. And the public will probably put up with that for another 5 years, unfortunately.
Regards
Just cut the bloody taxes. All this tearstained concern for skoolznhospitals is sheer hypocrisy, pollsters' feedback. What Middle Englanders like me really, really want is more of our own money in our own pockets, and enough police to smash any riots which may result from bureaucrats and doleites being dragged off the public tit. State share of GDP 25% max... Tory share of poll 35% min.
Their immediate problem is that Michael Howard comes across as creepy and oily and Letwin as an honest but soppy bumbler-- the kind of bloke who gets mugged on his own doorstep. Perhaps they need the sort of makeover Gordon Reece did on Maggie.
Any government that taxes is saying that they know how to spend your money better than you do.
The Tories should be clear:- For each state area ringfence-link taxation with spending and allow opt-outs. Come up with a fancy term like "competative social democracy" and let people choose lower taxes and others deafult to choosing the existing state "scheme".
The main problem for the Tories is that whenever they come up with any policy for public services that involves choice and/or the private sector in any way, shape or form, there is a massive outcry of condemnation from Labour and the Lib-Dems (who subsequently get about 90% of BBC airtime to wail and moan about it) as if they had just unveiled a policy to kill all the "darkies."
Good point, Paul. Whatever the strengths of the Tories' ideas, their single biggest failing for decades has been their lack of attention to propaganda. The left has never neglected propaganda. Since 1945, it has worked overtime to politicise the provision of public services in this country and to portray the centre-right as at best weird, if not downright evil. The Tories still have no strategy for getting their new ideas across to a wider audience without having them "reinterpreted" by the left and its stooges at the BBC.
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